What is Herd Immunity?

How Will We Achieve It?

Author: Floyd Else, MA, LMHC (ret.), NCC, MAC

Posted on September 29, 2020

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“Herd immunity occurs when enough people become immune to a disease to make its spread unlikely." The elimination of the weak--achieved by the death the elderly and others who have compromised immunity due to other health problems—is one way to protect the entire community, even those who are not themselves immune. While vaccination is a more gentle way, "herd immunity can also occur through natural infection.”  (Charles Darwin called it "natural selection", or "survival of the fittest.")

But, we do not yet have a vaccine for the COVID-19 virus.  Even when we have a new, safe, effective vaccine it may take years to reach the 90 percent vaccinated level needed to achieve herd immunity.

Some of our political leaders—governors, mayors, county executives, (usually Democrats), recommend precautions to prevent the spread of the coronavirus by social distancing, wearing masks, frequent hand washing, etc. This doesn’t completely stop infection, but helps to lower the rate of infections and avoid overwhelming medical personnel and facilities, while giving us more time to develop a vaccine.

Other political leaders (usually Republican) minimize the risk, saying, "It is no worse than the flu."  (This Ignores CDC estimates that even with a flu vaccine--during the 2018–2019 influenza season—the flu caused more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths nationwide).  Other leaders, with a similar message are saying, "Let’s just wait it out until we develop herd immunity."

With no vaccine, should the goal of developing herd immunity be of concern members of the general public?  Should we opt for natural infection and natural selection?  Should we attend crowded bars and restaurants?  Should we risk our lives to help the economy recover and achieve Herd Immunity more quickly? 

The Seattle Times reported as of September 25, 2020, COVID-19 in Washington State, of a total of 85,830 confirmed cases,  and 2,100 Deaths. Deaths by age: 2% were between the ages of 20 to 39, 9% between the ages of 40-59 years old.

The chances that an infection with the virus will kill you increases with age and other medical conditions you may have. 

38% of those who have died are ages 60 to 79, and 51% of the total deaths were persons over the age of 80. So, 89% of deaths are to people between 60 to 80+ years old. 

There are many ways to personalize this: For young parents, reaching  herd immunity could mean no longer expecting your parents or grandparents to be available for babysitting—because they are already dead or dying, or they are alive and socially isolating even from grandchildren who at any time might become asymptomatic carriers of the virus.  The whole concept is scary and unpleasant to think about.

Because of the large number of elderly voters who vote conservative, I can give no credence to the crazy conspiracy theory that Republicans—who need your vote--are out to kill you, although that appears to be an accidental outcome of their policies.  

Rather, I think their striving for herd immunity is a natural outcome of their conservative beliefs in rugged individualism, and protecting individual rights which leads them to permit or to encourage activities that are fun and perhaps ill-advised, without regard for their health and well-being or the health of anyone else in the community, including you!

And from another point of view, the CDC has estimated that so far only about 3 to 4 percent of the population has been infected by the coronavirus.  This means as many as 96% of us are still “coronavirus virgins.”  And many, including me, prefer to keep it that way as long as possible.

For me, at the ripe old age of 83, with other medical concerns, my personal approach to Herd Immunity is a matter of survival, not politics.  I chose “not to die” if I can avoid it; will get my other vaccinations (the flu and pneumonia still out there killing people), practice social distancing, wear a mask in public places, eat right, exercise, wash my hands frequently, get enough rest, and pray for God’s mercy.

And when the FDA approves a vaccine, I will get one as soon as it is available to me.  Until then, I welcome the help and support of my thoughtful, considerate, fellow citizens who chose to avoid infecting the rest of us.

Be careful, stay well, and stay away...at least 6 feet!

Floyd Else, 83, Webmaster, is a retired mental health counselor and substance abuse counselor who lives in Bellevue, Washington.

PS: Just as I feared, it's killing Republicans. 
One week after the presidential election and US is experiencing 100,000 new COVID-19 cases each day and the Associated Press reports, “Voters in 93 percent of the 376 counties with the highest per capita number of coronavirus cases overwhelmingly went for Trump.  Most of the counties were rural—in Montana, the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, and Wisconsin.” Reported in THE WEEK, Nov. 20, 2020.

 On vaccination, “the partisan gap is astonishing,” said William Galston in the The Wall Street Journal.  More than 80 percent of Democrats have gotten at least one shot, but on 49 percent of Republicans have—and nearly a third categorically refuse to. Biden won the 20 most vaccinated states but only three of the 20 least vaccinated.  The “Regrettable trend” of politicizing everything has turned a badly needed vaccine into an ideological marker.    THE WEEK Magazine

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“The U.S. death toll from COVID-19  topped  600,000 on Tuesday (June 15th), even as the vaccination drive has drastically brought down daily cases and fatalities and allowed the country to emerge from the gloom and look forward to summer...”  (Seattle Times news services June 16, 2021.)
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Vaccine rule - Federal Workers - July 2021

The rapidly spreading delta variant is forcing the administration to move quickly to adjust its response to a pandemic that has already killed more than 600,000 Americans and is once again surging in parts of the country where vaccination rates are low.
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“This is (now) a pandemic of the unvaccinated,” Mr. Biden said, calling it an “American tragedy” and talking directly to the 90 million Americans who are eligible for a vaccine but have not gotten one. “People are dying and will die who don’t have to die. If you’re out there unvaccinated, you don’t have to die...”

“If you want to do business with the federal government, get your workers vaccinated,” the president said bluntly.

Mr. Biden urged companies and local governments to mimic his new vaccine requirements for federal employees, which he noted had the support of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The group said on Thursday that the president’s new rules were “prudent steps to protect public health...”

Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader and a polio survivor, encouraged people to get the vaccine. With the virus on the rise in conservative swaths of the country, Mr. McConnell is among a handful of Republican leaders who are now explicitly calling for vaccination.

“Honestly, it never occurred to me we’d have difficulty getting people to take the vaccine,” he said.

By Michael D. Shear, Sheryl Gay Stolberg and Annie Karni -- in the New York Times, July 29, 2021.

 

On Friday Oct. 1, 2021, the United States Crossed the threshold of 700,00 deaths from COVID-19.
Wilson Ring, The Associated Press 

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In U.S. counties where Donald Trump won at least 70% of the vote in the 2020 eletion, Covid-19 has killed about 47 out of every 100,00 people since the end of June. In counties where Trump won less than 32 percent of the vote, the Covid death rate is about 10 out of 100,000.
The New York Times, quoted in THE WEEK magazine, Oct 8,2021.

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Covid-19 is now the leading cause of death for police officers in the U.S. Some 420 have died from the disease since January 2020, compared with 92 who died from gunfire, the second leading cause.
The Wall Street Journal, quoted in THE WEEK magazine, Oct 8,2021.
 

SEE ALSO:
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